Wednesday, February 18, 2009

LAS VEGAS HOUSING IN A REVERSE BUBBLE

Home prices in Las Vegas continue to fall, and the month to month decline is accelerating. The average decline since the declines began in '06 is 2% per month. BUT, the average decline in the last six months is 5% PER MONTH! Whatever your property is worth today, it's worth 15% less in three months.

And I don't see a bottom any time soon. The price graph is a straight line down and has not even hinted to start to curve back up.
And with another record of pre foreclosure notices in January, we have at least four more months of record numbers of actual foreclosures. PLUS, realtors reported the other day that since the FHA moratorium ended a few weeks ago, the market is being flooded with even MORE foreclosures.

At this rate in these conditions, prices are going to drop at least another 20% and 30% isn't out of the question.

Man, how low can they really go? What is a theoretical worst case bottom? We've already blown by cost of construction. They can't go to zero.

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